Bank of America is calling for three rate hikes by year-end. The data says that call is wrong.
Core CPI is up just 0.2% month over month. Core PPI is below consensus. One-year breakevens are 1.698%, down 25.78% year to date. The oil curve is moving into contango, which says supply shock rather than persistent demand pressure.
The FOMC held 12-0 and blamed supply shocks, not monetary excess. Housing is structurally gridlocked; hikes freeze inventory, they do not clear it. The current rate is 3.5–3.75%, already above the Fed’s own 3.1% neutral estimate.
Three hikes into a fading supply shock, above-neutral rates, and sub-2% breakevens is not a forecast. It is a headline dressed up as analysis. Read the data, not the bank note.