Great breakdown -> the InP laser scarcity is the part most people miss. Long $AAOI Here’s the layer that makes it un-clonable: it’s not just that AOI grows its own lasers it’s WHERE. While the entire complex scrambles to de-risk out of Asia, $AAOI is building the LARGEST $AAOI is guiding to 930,000 units per […]
InP laser scarcity and the AAOI capacity advantage Read More »
We have a few $TRT:1. Order book conversion / shipments (near-term driver)2. Malaysia capacity expansion coming online3. Next earnings Q4 / FY2026 (Aug-Sept)4. Continued AI/EV order flow
TRT: Order Book Conversion and AI/EV Demand Read More »
$TRT is down roughly 45% from its $21.38 high and now trades under $12. Everyone thinks the thesis broke. The business says otherwise. Nine-month revenue nearly doubled from $26M to $48M, the company swung to an operating profit, and it landed a $5.3M order for burn-in boards on a major AI-chip program. The key distinction
TRT’s Burn-In Thesis Is Still Intact Read More »
The market just misread Ambarellas quarter. Everyone fixated on a margin dip and missed the biggest strategic deal in the companys history. Buried in the print: a 10-year, $800M+ edge-AI agreement with Hanwha. That contract changes the frame from a quarterly margin story to a long-duration edge-compute platform. Revenue was $100.4M in Q1 FY27, but
Ambarella’s Edge-AI Deal Is the Real Story Read More »
A winning streak is emotionally persuasive and analytically dangerous. It encourages investors to confuse a favorable environment with a repeatable skill. The longer the streak, the more tempting it becomes to increase size precisely when humility is most valuable. A better review asks what actually drove the result: selection, timing, leverage, liquidity, or simply a
Winning Streaks Can Teach the Wrong Lesson Read More »
$EOSE is a long-term bet on domestic, non-flammable energy storage. The technology story most retail investors are not sizing correctly is the chemistry edge: an aqueous zinc battery (Znyth™) with no rare earths and a fully domestic U.S. supply chain. The Z3 module has more than 200 patents pending, published, or issued, plus a bipolar
Eos Energy’s Zinc Battery Edge Is More Than Chemistry Read More »
Right -> the end of a 40-year bond bull market. The duration of this drawdown is the signal, not the depth (as you pointed out) the $AGG peaked at rock-bottom yields, so minimal carry and maximum duration make the recovery challenging even if rates just hold. And the move is
Bond Duration Is the Signal, Not the Depth Read More »
The end of the 40-year bond bull market is not defined by one dramatic day. It is defined by what happens after yields stop falling. When long-term yields spent decades moving lower, duration was rewarded twice: bonds delivered income, and their prices rose as rates fell. Portfolios built on that experience came to treat duration
The Duration Drawdown Is the Signal Read More »
Investing is not one skill. It is a puzzle, and most people hold one piece and wonder why the picture does not work. My framework starts with fundamentals: what to buy and why it should compound. Risk and sizing determine how long I can stay in the game. Macro tells me whether the tide is
Investing Is Not One Skill Read More »
The next wave of disruption is not concentrated in the obvious mega-caps. It is moving through smaller companies that are rewriting industries before Wall Street fully wakes up. A few examples: AST SpaceMobile: cell towers in space and broadband direct to a phone. IREN: a power-and-compute platform built for the AI era. Optical and networking
10 Disruptors the Market Hasn’t Priced In Read More »
