THE CLOCK Same map, sorted by when it pays instead of what it does. PAYING NOW $NVDA $AVGO $MU $CRDO $VST Revenue is in the print. Contracted, shipping, commissioning. The argument here is multiple, not existence. PAYING 2027 $IREN $NBIS $CIFR $WULF $BE Signed contracts against capacity that isn’t energized yet. You’re underwriting a commissioning […]
The Clock: Sort the Map by When It Pays Read More »
Nine weeks of 8-Ks, July 17 to Sept. 18: Bitcoin: 19,921 to 26,355. +32.3% Effective common shares: 83.67M → 97.00M. +15.9% Bitcoin grew roughly twice as fast as the common share count. Result: BTC per common share increased 14.1% while shares outstanding were rising. Using Strive’s assumed fully diluted share count, the result is almost
The Strive Paradox: The Share Count Went Up. So Did the Bitcoin Behind Every Share. Read More »
$ASST may be showing us exactly what a warrant overhang looks like in real time. $BTC surged toward $87K. $ASST hit ~$32 premarket then fell to ~$29.19 intraday. Why? The $27 warrants are no longer theoretical. Outstanding warrants just fell: 26.60M 25.81M 785,555 warrants disappeared. There are still 25.81M $27 warrants outstanding – nearly $697M
What a Warrant Overhang Looks Like in Real Time Read More »
FOLLOW ONE DOLLAR A dollar of AI capex doesn’t land on one company. It walks the whole circuit. It starts as a budget line at a hyperscaler. Buys a rack. $NVDA $AVGO keep a piece. The rack is useless without memory. $MU $SNDK take their cut. Racks have to talk to each other at 1.6T.
Follow One Dollar: Own the Layers, Not the Logo Read More »
The New Monetary Regime We are living through a monetary regime change. I don’t mean the dollar disappears or every contract gets rewritten in bitcoin one morning. Regimes don’t change that cleanly. The unit on the invoice stays the same while the rules around it move. Reserve preferences change before payment habits do. The marginal
Why Bitcoin Gets Stronger As AI Wins Read More »
Why COMPUTE? Jevons, 1865. Watt made the steam engine more efficient, coal got cheaper per unit of work, and Britain burned more coal than ever. That’s the part the efficiency crowd keeps getting backwards. Every drop in cost per token makes a use case economic that wasn’t one a quarter ago. Cheaper compute doesn’t shrink
Why Compute? Jevons Still Explains the Shortage Read More »
The bottom line on IREN is more complicated than the headline. The company combines renewable power, controlled sites, data-center capacity, and two possible revenue engines: Bitcoin mining today and AI infrastructure tomorrow. That combination is what makes IREN unusual. Mining can monetize power immediately, while the AI opportunity could increase the value of the same
IREN’s Bottom Line: The Hard Truth Behind Its AI Pivot Read More »
POWER, PART 2. The queue nobody can skip. Part 1 was who owns the electrons. This is why nobody else can get any. THE TURBINE $GEV $SMNEY $MHVYF Three companies on earth build heavy duty gas turbines. New orders run about three years. GE Vernova has roughly 10 GW of slots left across 2029 and
Power, Part 2: The Queue Nobody Can Skip Read More »
Chamath is describing the second half of Jevons. Open weights are the efficiency shock. Cost per token collapses, which means more people run more models in more places, which means more compute burned, not less. Watt made the steam engine efficient and Britain burned more coal than ever. And it changes where the value sits.
Open Weights Push the Moat to Power, Land, and Chips Read More »
Bitcoin just printed two signals that the market has not seen together since last November: a golden cross on September 9, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day, and a move above its 50-week average for the first time in this bear market. The second signal matters more than the headline. A weekly
Bitcoin’s Golden Cross Is a Signal, Not a Thesis Read More »
