Investing

The AOI quarter in one line: they can’t build them fast enough, and now they’re profitable while trying. Revenue: $191.9M, up 86%. Fifth straight record. First profitable quarter of the AI era. Q3 guided to $255290M, implying 130% growth. 800G up 10x. 1.6T ships this quarter. The setup is simple: demand is running ahead of […]

The play into year-end and 2027 will continue to favor interest-rate-sensitive names. Rate sensitivity usually means duration: businesses whose value is measured by cash flows far in the future. When the long end moves, those future earnings are repriced more aggressively in both directions. That creates two lessons for investors: Falling long-term yields can unlock

BEATS ARE GETTING SOLD. MISSES ARE GETTING CRUSHED. $APP: down 28% on a 1% miss $DDOG: down 18% on a beat AND raise Long into a print and not sure? Collar it. What I did on $AAOI today, earnings tonight: Keep the shares Buy the $110 put, 2 weeks out (Aug 21) Sell the $160

Fundamentals are strengthening – strong earnings and margins significantly improving and the market is beginning to recognize it. AI is inherently deflationary. Higher productivity, greater output, and expanding margins can coexist. Earnings are reflecting it. Bullish.

“The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.” Paul Tudor Jones Situational Awareness (one of the most followed AI funds in the world) was up 439%+ net through June, per its own investor letter. Now it was forced to sell the bulk of its book in one trade. The

Investing has never been about predicting the future with certainty. At its core, it is about pricing uncertainty, expected value, downside, and probabilities better than the consensus. Great writeup @FrankDPrestia

This is the same story as the dispersion chart, told backwards. Implied correlation is near the lows. That means the money is short single names against single longs, not short the market. Rising short interest with falling correlation isn’t bearish positioning. It’s stock selection.

Everyone tells the human-machine merger from our side. What we gain. Memory, strength, longer life. Asimov told it from the machine’s side. At the end of Foundation and Earth, Daneel’s positronic brain is failing after twenty thousand years of serving humanity. His solution is to merge with a genetically altered Solarian child. He isn’t a

Everyone usually tells the human-machine merger from our side: memory, strength, longevity, and expanded capability. Asimov told it from the machines side. In Foundation and Earth, Daneels positronic brain is failing after twenty thousand years of serving humanity. His solution is to merge minds and create a system capable of preserving civilization at a larger

The average midterm year bottoms at the end of June. Which means the payoff everyone quotes sits on the other side of a summer nobody wants to sit through.