Structural debasement. The market begged for a hawkish Fed. Got the hike. Long end yields dropped. 📉 A week later it’s rising. Now it’s doing the math. 📈 Higher rates = bigger interest bill = more borrowing = more money creation. Be careful what you wish for. PS Current public debt at ~$40T + > […]
Structural Debasement Read More »
Looks like they need a BIGGER boat. Structural debasement of fiat. Raising rates = raises the cost of money and borrowing. Now they need more of the "higher cost" money to pay for the higher costs. 🔁
Looks Like They Need a Bigger Boat Read More »
Monetary regimes change. They always have. 1971 closed the gold window and opened four decades of asset inflation. 1981 looked like the end of the bond market and started a forty year bull run. Both felt like the floor giving out at the time. Many FEAR CHANGE. Change reads as “loss” to most people because
Monetary Regimes Change: Fear Reads as Loss Read More »
The New Monetary Regime We are living through a monetary regime change. I don’t mean the dollar disappears or every contract gets rewritten in bitcoin one morning. Regimes don’t change that cleanly. The unit on the invoice stays the same while the rules around it move. Reserve preferences change before payment habits do. The marginal
Why Bitcoin Gets Stronger As AI Wins Read More »
$HOOD held the one number that mattered. 104.42 is the 50 EMA, the .618 and the cloud floor stacked on one line. Closed right there yesterday. Today +5.2% on the tokenized equities pilot. • SEC opened the door to tokenized stocks in the US • Fed hiked and crypto rallied anyway, BTC back over 76k
Let’s put things in perspective. Thanks @KHerriage Rates never ended that bull market. Demand did. By 2000 the fiber was built years before anyone needed it, and the capex cycle ran out of customers while the 10 year sat near 6%. Today the order is reversed. Customers are
Let’s put things in perspective. Thanks Read More »
Fed hikes and everything is GREEN. Stock futures up. Bitcoin up. And yields up across the whole curve, 2 year through 30 year, the 10 year through 5%. The market wasn’t afraid of the Fed today. It wanted the UNCERTAINTY gone. The hike was priced, so once it landed there was
Fed hikes and everything is GREEN. Stock futures up. Bitcoin up. And yields up… Read More »
“Raising rates will not lower energy prices. It will not create oil, gas, pipelines, refineries, or electricity capacity. And it will not curb government spending.” “This is not inflation fighting. It is punishing the productive private sector while fiscal excess remains untouched.” Well said @dlacalle_IA 🤝
Raising rates will not lower energy prices Read More »
Most people watching the Fed are watching the wrong number. Earnings do not move the overall market; liquidity does. The rate that matters is the real rate: the policy rate minus expected inflation. The Fed sets the first variable. The public sets the second. That means policy can change without a single vote. Hold the
The Fed, Plainly: The Real Rate Does the Tightening Read More »
Rate Hikes Hit the Private Sector. “Raising interest rates will not bring down oil or natural-gas prices, curb government deficits, or reverse the monetary debasement that undermines purchasing power.” @dlacalle_IA is truly a top economist who speaks real economics how I see it. 🤝
Rate Hikes Hit the Private Sector Read More »
