Rate Hikes Are a Tax on the Private Sector 🚨 Rate hikes are tightening tax in the private sector and will NOT lower the price of refined products, ie OIL. Supply Shocks Need Non-Monetary Answers Yes, we need to END THE WAR! Raising rates will not lower the price of a barrel of oil. Supply […]
Why Rate Hikes Can’t Fix an Energy Shock or Deficit-Driven Inflation Read More »
🚨 Nobody wanted the 20-year when they brought it back in 2020 and nobody wants it now. Dropping it is just clean up. The Move to Bills The part that matters is moving to bills. The Fed just hiked and most of them want to do it again. So Treasury is taking the debt and
Treasury Moves to Bills: Financial Repression Before Anyone Calls It That Read More »
The Fed just hiked into a stall. 👀 The Labor Data 29K jobs in September. The 3 month average is ~51K. Unemployment is up to 4.2 and they cut 60K out of the prior months. Wages are growing 3%, the slowest since 2021. And all 19 of them backed the hike. Most want another one.
The Fed Just Hiked Into a Stall: Jobs, the 10-Year at 5.36, and a Treasury Problem Read More »
We’re in a new monetary regime. 💸 On one side, a debt system that has to inflate, because the obligations are nominal and a shrinking denominator makes them heavier. On the other, AI technology that has to deflate, because every improvement pushes the cost of making things toward zero. The fiat unit can’t let prices
The New Monetary Regime: Fiat Inflates, Tech Deflates Read More »
The hike as a transfer, in one chart. 🔂 Treasury borrows short and got repriced in full. Large caps termed out at 2021 coupons (2-3%) and earn 5% on cash. The Fed tightened and the $SPX got paid. ✅ The tightening tax went to whoever borrows off prime. The contractor, the landlord, the small business,
The Hike as a Transfer Read More »
Making policy mistakes IS the Fed policy. Two weeks ago they hiked to stop “second and third order effects.” This morning: wages 3.0%, lowest since May 2021. Payrolls 29K. July revised to a loss. Three-month average 51K. 🤯 The second-order effect they hiked to prevent is wages. Wages were already rolling over. They hiked into
Making Policy Mistakes IS the Fed Policy Read More »
AI agents aren’t a productivity story. They’re a fraction story. $META $SPCX Productivity is output over input. Every prior technology moved one side. The steam engine raised output. The assembly line cut input. Agents do both in the same quarter: more output per worker, fewer inputs per unit of output. Numerator up, denominator down. That’s
AI Agents Aren’t a Productivity Story. They’re a Fraction Story Read More »
They will do whatever is possible to bring the long end down. First the yield curve twist, now full yield curve control. Buybacks are coming in strong. Treasury and the Fed will take turns printing money. Debasement is structural. Inflation is embedded in the fiat, credit-based system. It has a bias toward nominal growth and
The Fed and Treasury Will Take Turns Printing Read More »
🤔Some economic thoughts: I see many debating whether we are RESTRICTIVE vs LOOSE. The Fed's own long-run dot says 3.3. They hiked to 3.875 and called it removing accommodation. One of those is wrong. Either way it's the wrong tool. This inflation came from public spending. Rates work on private credit. A hike doesn't produce
You Can’t Solve a Fiscal Problem With a Monetary Tool Read More »
For thirty years, the deal was simple: the internet provided the storefront, and you provided the labor. You searched. You compared. You clicked through ten tabs, filled the cart, typed your card number, and hoped the checkout page didn’t time out. Every online transaction ran on human effort. That era is ending. Not because we
The Internet’s New Users Aren’t Human Read More »
