Economics

Milton Friedmans point was simple: people do not escape poverty by pretending greed can be legislated away. They escape by competing with it. That distinction matters because markets turn self-interest into a discovery process. A business owner wants customers, a worker wants better pay, and an investor wants a return. None of those motives guarantees […]

Cantillon Effect – those closest to money printer benefit the most. Inequality at its best. Great explanation below Most people have never heard of the Cantillon Effect. But once you understand it, you’ll see the world of investing differently. What is it? In the early 1700s, Richard Cantillon noticed a simple pattern: When new money

End the Fed! Milton Friedman …in favor of abolishing it…it has done far more harm than good. Is NOW the time? Milton Friedman on the Federal Reserve: Ive long been in favor of abolishing it. Theres no institution in the US that has such a high public standing and such a poor record of performance…

Bottom Line (Hard Truth) 1967 shows how markets can rally before macro reality sets in.Early cuts don’t end inflation -> they delay it. Bull markets can be born in policy mistakes.Stagflation is what collects the bill. Yes:•1967 cuts led to a bull market•That bull market

By 1969:• Wage growth accelerated• Commodities surged• Inflation re-ignited The Fed reversed course aggressively too late. What followed was stagflation: high inflation, weak growth, collapsing real returns.

Then (1967) Inflation was underestimated Rate cuts came early • Fiscal spending never stopped • Inflation returned stronger Now Inflation has been relabeled from transitory to disinflationary Cuts are being priced despite massive deficits and supply constraints The parallel is not that history repeats perfectly. It is that markets can rally before macro reality sets

The 1967 rate cuts offer a useful warning for today’s market. Phase 1: Bull Market (19671968) Stocks surged Confidence returned The Fed has this under control” narrative dominated Valuations expanded Sound familiar? Phase 2: Inflation Breaks Loose (1969) Wage growth accelerated Commodities surged Inflation re-ignited The Fed reversed course aggressively too late. What followed was

The core mistake in the stagflation trap was cutting rates while fiscal policy remained expansionary and supply constraints still existed. That created: More demand No new supply Rising wages Embedded inflation psychology Once inflation expectations became entrenched, the Fed had to reverse course aggressively. The result was high inflation, weak growth, and collapsing real returns.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady, and the decision also reinforced an important institutional signal: monetary policy remains data-driven rather than politically directed. Two officials dissented in favor of a cut, but the majority chose to wait for more evidence. Growth had moderated, uncertainty remained elevated, and inflation risks had not disappeared. That

FED Independence intact! Powell did not cave! #FOMC #FED *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.5% TARGET RANGE *FED GOVERNORS WALLER, BOWMAN DISSENTED IN FAVOR OF RATE CUT *FED: ECONOMIC GROWTH MODERATED IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR *FED: UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REMAINS ELEVATED *FED REMOVES LANGUAGE SAYING