Market Note
Go $HOOD long! The point is direct.
Investing
Bitcoin at $76.5K: the price is the least interesting thing on this chart
$BTC 76.5k. The price is the least interesting thing on this chart. The 50 week SMA is falling about 1,000 a week. The Ichimoku cloud is rising into price from underneath. They converge Oct 9 to 16. Right where price is standing. So the 50 week isn’t a wall waiting to be broken. It’s a
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Robinhood’s Tokenized-Equities Move Puts the 50 EMA in Focus
Robinhoods tokenized-equities pilot is giving traders a fresh catalyst to watch, but the chart still matters. On September 17, 2026, $HOOD held the 50-day exponential moving average, the 0.618 retracement, and the cloud floor at 104.42. The stock closed at that level the prior session before adding 5.2% as the pilot gained attention. The move
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$IREN
$IREN delivered about 3 megawatts of AI compute a year ago. This year it’s 480, and they’re guiding 1.2 gigawatts for 2027. The miners spent five years buying power nobody else wanted. It’s now the scarcest input in tech. That’s the whole neocloud trade. The knock on neoclouds
$SOXL
$SOXL +10% today, on below average volume. Working: higher lows since July 29, MACD above signal 9 days, OBV at post crash highs. Not working: RSI 47, 20 EMA under the 50, price under the cloud. 117.50 decides it. 200 EMA, the 38.2% retrace, the downtrend line. All sit there.
$BTC
$BTC Seeing call outs of lower levels like “$71k inbound” on the timeline. Maybe. It’s fourth in line. 71k is where the 100 EMA and the top of the Ichimoku cloud sit, so it’s a real level, not invented. But has to get through three shelves first: 74,750 → the 0.382
$BTC
$BTC has now been rejected twice at the sell block and bought twice at the buy block. It’s coiling into the Fed. Yesterday’s high stopped 34 dollars under the block at 79,634. Today’s dip into 75.6k got bought back the same session. The lid: 77.1-78.4k, where the 20
First Principles
First principles Howard Marks: you can’t predict, but you can prepare. Nobody knows the day the tape turns. Not the Fed, not the funds, not the account with the perfect chart. Every year the same people call the bottom, and every year it’s a different person who was right. So the job was never calling
The Future Economy Is One Machine
AI isn’t a sector. Crypto isn’t a sector. Software isn’t a sector. They’re one circuit, and the tickers are just where you plug in. Here’s the circuit: Energy feeds it: BE, VST, and TE. Electrons are the raw material. Substations take years, so this is where the shortage lives. Compute runs on it: IREN, NBIS,
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AI isn’t a bubble. This one runs on contracts.
AI isn’t a bubble. Bubbles run on stories. This one runs on contracts. THE AI STACK, Q4 edition. Scarcity migrates up the stack: GPUs in 23, memory now, power next. ENERGY: $BE $EOSE $TE $VST The layer you can’t fab. Substations take years. COMPUTE: $IREN $NBIS $CIFR $WULF Compute is revenue, per Jensen. Cheapest per
AI isn’t a bubble. This one runs on contracts. Read More »