The market is treating Treasury long-duration buybacks as if the policy were already pressing on the long end. But the calendar matters: the expanded buybacks do not start until September 9. That means the announcement can move expectations today, while the actual long-end buying pressure has not yet begun. The distinction is important for anyone […]
Bessent’s Long-Duration Buybacks Have Not Started Yet Read More »
Bessent: prevention of the infamous bear steepener and, worse, the long end blowing out by actively suppressing the long end via buybacks and selling EUR/YEN. Not QE, Treasury-led Operation Twist / soft yield-curve management.
Bessent’s Treasury Operation Twist Read More »
$SPX set an all-time high on Thursday. Today it’s red and the tone has already changed. Worth noticing what actually changed. Not the businesses. The reference point. The mind resets to the high-water mark almost immediately, so a normal down day near the top registers as losing money you never booked. And the narratives begin:
The mind resets to the high-water mark Read More »
Your best trading decisions happen when the market is closed. Goals, entries, exits, size. Decide all of it before you are in the trade, the same way you write the exit before you enter. The person staring at a live candle is not the person who made the plan. The moment is impulsive. It always
Your best trading decisions happen when the market is closed Read More »
The hardest problem in humanoid robotics isn’t walking. It’s knowing how hard to squeeze. That’s force and torque sensing, and $VPG just received a vendor nomination letter from its first humanoid customer. Not a press release. The customer formally naming its production supplier, after more than two years of qualification work. That customer’s ramp plan:
Humanoid robotics: force and torque sensing Read More »
“You are the obstacle” is the part nobody wants to hear. The urge to buy right now is not a character flaw, it is a feature. Your brain treats a missed gain like a real loss, and it wants the pain gone immediately. The market is built to sell you relief at the worst price.
You are the obstacle Read More »
China just listed its first humanoid robot company. Retail demand was oversubscribed 8,000 times. Unitree priced at a $9B valuation, 219x earnings. It shipped 5,500 humanoids last year, it’s profitable, 60% gross margins. Deep Robotics, AgiBot and EngineAI are lining up
China Lists Its First Humanoid Robot Company Read More »
They can print money. They can’t print electricians. The AI stack has a physical layer, and it gets paid no matter who wins. Builders like $PWR, $EME, $FIX, $AGX and $STRL sit underneath the software narrative. High voltage, site work, cooling and gas plants are not optional. Every announced data center needs energized land, transformers,
They can print money. They can’t print electricians. Read More »
$SPX 10,000 is the conservative case. And the whole thing prices off one number. Take @DrJStrategy’s model and run it at different 10Y yields, same $440 of 2027 earnings: 3.75% 26.7x ~11,700 4.65% (today) 21.5x ~9,500 6.1% (the dot com era average) 16.4x ~7,200 Same earnings, three different markets. The 10Y picks the number. That’s
SPX 10,000 Is the Conservative Case, and It All Comes Down to One Number Read More »
POWER: $BE, $WULF, $TE. CLOUD: $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV. MEMORY: $MU, $SNDK, $SKHY. PHOTONICS: $AAOI, $LITE, $CRDO, $SIVEF. ROBOTICS: $CCXI, $VPG, $OUST, $AMBA. DRONES: $ONDS, $UMAC, $LPTH. POWER feeds CLOUD. CLOUD runs on MEMORY. MEMORY moves on LIGHT. The robots and drones at the end are where the spend finally earns its keep. Scarcity migrates up
The AI trade is not one trade. It’s a stack Read More »
