This is the same story as the dispersion chart, told backwards. Implied correlation is near the lows. That means the money is short single names against single longs, not short the market. Rising short interest with falling correlation isn’t bearish positioning. It’s stock selection.
Dispersion and Implied Correlation Read More »
Emotion is data. It is not judgment. The market can make you afraid without making the position wrong, and confident without making it right. Great investors do not suppress emotion. They separate it from the decision and refuse to let pain dictate behavior.
Emotion is data. It is not judgment Read More »
Everyone tells the human-machine merger from our side. What we gain. Memory, strength, longer life. Asimov told it from the machine’s side. At the end of Foundation and Earth, Daneel’s positronic brain is failing after twenty thousand years of serving humanity. His solution is to merge with a genetically altered Solarian child. He isn’t a
AI’s Deepest Moat Is a Customer Who Can’t Leave Read More »
Everyone usually tells the human-machine merger from our side: memory, strength, longevity, and expanded capability. Asimov told it from the machines side. In Foundation and Earth, Daneels positronic brain is failing after twenty thousand years of serving humanity. His solution is to merge minds and create a system capable of preserving civilization at a larger
The Human-Machine Merger Has a Machine-Side Cost Read More »
The average midterm year bottoms at the end of June. Which means the payoff everyone quotes sits on the other side of a summer nobody wants to sit through.
The Average Midterm Year Bottoms at the End of June Read More »
The AI power value chain, fuel to rack. Five stages, and every one is a bottleneck somebody owns. Fuel comes first. Uranium demand is a decade contract, not a trade. CCJ and BWXT sit at the front of the chain, where the clock is measured in reactors and long-term procurement. Firm generation is the next
The AI power value chain: fuel to rack Read More »
An index can hold up while an individual portfolio falls because averages conceal dispersion. A handful of large names, sectors, or factors can support the benchmark while high-beta holdings, small caps, or a crowded theme absorb the damage. That is why the market is not a sufficient risk report. Measure the drivers of the actual
Why the Index Can Look Fine While Your Book Does Not Read More »
McKinsey, Goldman, PwC and Gartner publish the forecasts. Almost nobody maps them to the layers that must be built first. That’s the part investors can underwrite. 2026 is enterprise scale: roughly $725B of infrastructure spend, with tokens acting like refined electricity. The spend flows through $NVDA, $AVGO and $TSM, then lands on power and land
The next decade of AI, mapped by what must physically exist at each stage Read More »
Watching this tape do its work. Some are freaking out and selling more than they planned. Some are diving in with both hands because everything looks “cheap.” And some are staying level, sized right, playing their own timeframe and/or holding CASH. That third group has it. It isn’t good to be perma anything. Not perma
Position sizing and timeframe are center stage now Read More »
Good reminder to ZOOM OUT! Monthly Chart -> Zoom out and every drawdown reads as consolidation. That’s fine if you’re unlevered and have time. Direction and path are different bets.
Zoom Out: Direction and Path Are Different Bets Read More »
