BEATS ARE GETTING SOLD. MISSES ARE GETTING CRUSHED. $APP: down 28% on a 1% miss $DDOG: down 18% on a beat AND raise Long into a print and not sure? Collar it. What I did on $AAOI today, earnings tonight: Keep the shares Buy the $110 put, 2 weeks out (Aug 21) Sell the $160 […]
Beats Are Getting Sold. Misses Are Getting Crushed. Read More »
Warsh outsourced his tightening to the bond market. The Treasury is getting ready to shut that down. 🤯 The Fed wants the long end high and doing its job. The admin wants to print and cap it. Same rate, opposite orders, same week. ⚖️ That’s the discount rate for every long duration asset on the
Warsh outsourced his tightening Read More »
America already ran this experiment. 1942 to 1951, the Fed pegged the long end for nine years while postwar inflation hit double digits. Bondholders got every dollar back. The dollars bought half as much. The debt never defaulted. It dissolved. That’s the game Kevin is describing. Crashes get printed away, the bill comes back as
America already ran this experiment Read More »
Fundamentals are strengthening – strong earnings and margins significantly improving and the market is beginning to recognize it. AI is inherently deflationary. Higher productivity, greater output, and expanding margins can coexist. Earnings are reflecting it. Bullish.
Fundamentals Are Strengthening Read More »
🚨 The long end is a supply and demand story, not an inflation story. Supply: record Treasury issuance funding 6% deficits. Demand: the largest foreign holder turning seller as BOJ defends the yen. Breakevens are anchored. Credit isn’t pricing a new inflation regime. The market repricing here is the price of duration, not the price
The long end is a supply and demand story Read More »
“The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.” Paul Tudor Jones Situational Awareness (one of the most followed AI funds in the world) was up 439%+ net through June, per its own investor letter. Now it was forced to sell the bulk of its book in one trade. The
Defense First: Protect the Capital Read More »
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 93 to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. That decision is less about declaring victory than about buying time. The Committee is balancing inflation that is still above target against a labor market and growth outlook that do not justify unnecessary tightening. The dissent matters
The FOMC Is Holding Rates While Watching the Data Read More »
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 – 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing
FOMC Holds Rates to Support Its Dual Mandate Read More »
Investing has never been about predicting the future with certainty. At its core, it is about pricing uncertainty, expected value, downside, and probabilities better than the consensus. Great writeup @FrankDPrestia
Pricing Uncertainty Better Than Consensus Read More »
The reaction function is the sign. You hold in June, then one soft core print talks you into a hike? That is not a framework. That is a coin flip. Core is 2.6% and falling. Breakevens are below 2, so the market is pricing an undershoot of the Fed target. Payrolls came in at 57K
The reaction function is the sign Read More »
