Imagine knowing in 1996 that the internet was real, but not knowing which companies would become the winners. Google did not exist. Amazon was a bookstore. The obvious names were not yet obvious. The trade was in the layers every winner would need: fiber, routers, hosting, and the infrastructure that moved data. Those suppliers could […]
The 1996 Internet Trade Was the Layer Trade Read More »
In 1996, you knew the internet was real, but Google did not exist and Amazon was still a bookstore. The trade was not picking the eventual logo; it was owning the layers every winner would need: fiber, routers, hosting, and the supporting infrastructure. The AI economy is at its own 1996. Applications are everywhere, business
The Layers Get Paid Before the Winners Have Names Read More »
What is the next great technology? I focus on AI investing, and my other half @FrankDPrestia focuses on AI technology and infrastructure. He’s an AI strategist and innovation theorist.
What Is the Next Great Technology? Read More »
The market keeps rewarding projected demand, but signed revenue is a harder signal. A backlog is not a promise to sellit is work already contracted and waiting to convert into reported results. The board spans the AI infrastructure stack: roughly $50 billion contracted for NBIS, $9.7 billion for IREN, $2.22 billion of backlog at RKLB,
Signed Revenue, Not Guidance, Is the Backlog Signal Read More »
AST SpaceMobile just filed to test spectrum it doesn’t own. That’s not a mistake. That’s the signal. The bands817824 and 862869 MHz, sit directly against the spectrum AT&T and Verizon already leased them. Same antennas, same satellites, wider pipe. Nobody spends regulatory effort testing spectrum they have no path to using. Testing comes before deals.
AST SpaceMobile Is Testing Spectrum It Doesn’t Own Read More »
A rising account balance can quietly rewrite an investors self-image. Good outcomes become evidence of superior judgment, sizing increases, and the bear case gets treated as an obstacle rather than a requirement. That is how a winning streak turns into a larger future mistake. Markets do not reward confidence by itself. They reward a process
Bull Markets Feel Like Skill Read More »
The market often prices a delay before it prices the milestones that resolve the delay. That distinction matters in infrastructure businesses. A project can miss a near-term expectation while the underlying conversion remains on schedule. When the stock trades the delay, investors are given a chance to separate calendar risk from execution risk. For DGXX,
The Delay Is Priced, the Milestones Aren’t Read More »
The strangest six weeks I’ve tracked in a while. The prices went one direction. The filings went the other. $EOSE → stock red YTD. Record revenue, record $807M backlog, collections above revenue, Pentagon added to the customer list. $AAOI → cut in half from the high.
The strangest six weeks Read More »
The most misunderstood balance sheet in AI infrastructure may be DigitalOcean’s. While many neoclouds stack convertible notes and vendor debt, DigitalOcean took a different route. It sold $888 million of stock at $77, paid off its entire $500 million term loan, and set aside cash to retire its 2026 converts. That changes the investment conversation.
DigitalOcean’s Balance Sheet Is the Differentiator Read More »
The market is not your friend. The market is not your enemy. The market is not your therapist. The market is a mirror that reflects every emotion you bring to it back at you – amplified. Bring calm and it pays you. Bring fear and it taxes you. The market does not change. You do.
The market is not your friend Read More »
