Why is the market willing to pay more for some growth and less for other growth? The answer is usually not a single headline. It is the interaction of rates, funding, expectations, and the credibility of the next milestone. A company can report progress and still disappoint if the market expected perfection. Another can report […]
Why the Market Can Ignore Good News Read More »
The market can separate a company’s progress from its stock price. A business may keep executing while the equity falls because expectations, discount rates, or positioning moved faster than the fundamentals. That divergence is neither an automatic buy signal nor proof that the business is broken. It is an invitation to compare the operating ledger
The Market Can Separate Price From Progress Read More »
Inflation, simplest definition: money growing faster than what the economy produces. More currency chasing the same output → prices rise. That’s it. Not greed, not gas prices, not bad luck. The ratio of money to output. Two ways to fight it. Shrink the numerator → tighten, the painful way. Or grow the denominator → produce
What is Inflation? Read More »
CPI COOLER Down 0.4% M/M 3.5% Y/Y May CPI printed 4.2% and the market priced a September hike at 75%. June CPI just fell 0.4% on the month → the biggest monthly decline since April 2020. Headline down to 3.5%. Core flat for the month, 2.6% annually.
CPI cooler: down 0.4% M/M to 3.5% Y/Y Read More »
May CPI printed 4.2% and the market priced a September hike at 75%. June CPI just fell 0.4% on the monththe biggest monthly decline since April 2020. Headline inflation dropped to 3.5% year over year. Core was flat for the month and 2.6% annually. That is not a minor miss. It changes the policy path
CPI Cooler: The Inflation Shock Is Easing Read More »
Twenty years, ten observations, zero pumps. Patience, discipline, independent thinking. #7 → a price target tells you where someone wants a stock to go, never what would prove them wrong. No condition, no accountability. Miss it, move it, repeat. Just clickbait. This is why I do NOT do PTs! #3 → yes, high conviction concentration
Twenty years, ten observations, zero pumps Read More »
Earnings season starts Tuesday. Guidance will move every stock in my book → and I’ll be listening closely, because forward numbers are where re-rates begin. But guidance is a promise. Backlog is a receipt → and receipts are how you know which promises to believe. So here’s the screen: companies walking into earnings with the
Guidance is a promise. Backlog is a receipt Read More »
🏡 Turnarounds are people stories. The financials are always the last thing to change → the people change first. So read $OPEN’s people: → New CEO’s @nejatian salary: $1. No bonus. ~82M shares that only vest at prices from $6.24 to $33 → the $TSLA structure (performance based compensation is my preferred). He gets paid
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Risk management always looks expensive in a bull market → the trimmed winner, the cash drag, the hedge that bled. Then one Tuesday arrives and the bill flips: everyone who skipped the premium pays the claim. You choose when to pay for risk. Before, at prices you set → or after, at prices set for
Risk management always looks expensive in a bull market Read More »
This is the whole $WYFI thesis in a nutshell. Training is episodic → a capex spike that ends. Inference is the annuity → recurring, high-utilization, compounding with every agent deployed. $WYFI is built for the annuity: metro-adjacent sites for low latency, cross-data-center orchestration rolling out, owns the buildings AND the GPUs so the utilization margin
Inference is the annuity: the WYFI thesis Read More »
