🚨 Nobody wanted the 20-year when they brought it back in 2020 and nobody wants it now. Dropping it is just clean up. The Move to Bills The part that matters is moving to bills. The Fed just hiked and most of them want to do it again. So Treasury is taking the debt and […]
Treasury Moves to Bills: Financial Repression Before Anyone Calls It That Read More »
🌊 Three things about volatility most people get backwards. 1. Volatility Isn’t the Risk Being forced to sell is. The same 40% drop is a buying opportunity in one account and can be a margin call in another. The stock is the same. The accounts are built differently. 2. Leverage Makes You More Volatile Leverage
Three Things About Volatility Most People Get Backwards Read More »
The Fed just hiked into a stall. 👀 The Labor Data 29K jobs in September. The 3 month average is ~51K. Unemployment is up to 4.2 and they cut 60K out of the prior months. Wages are growing 3%, the slowest since 2021. And all 19 of them backed the hike. Most want another one.
The Fed Just Hiked Into a Stall: Jobs, the 10-Year at 5.36, and a Treasury Problem Read More »
💾 Green on Oct 7, and it’s all the same layer: $MU $SNDK $PENG Pricing Power in the AI Stack Memory is the part of the AI machine with pricing power right now. HBM is sold out, contract prices keep repricing higher, and Nvidia raised server prices and pointed at memory costs. The chip thinks,
Memory Is the New Bottleneck: Why Scarcity Migrated From GPUs to Memory Read More »
One bitcoin treasury is winning this cycle, and it isn’t the one with the most coins. Objectively, by the metrics the category itself uses, it’s Strive. $SATA $ASST Speed. Zero to 26,355 BTC in about a year. 19,921 to 26,355 in the nine weeks to Sept 18, up 32%, while common shares rose 16%. Bitcoin
Strive Is Winning the Bitcoin Treasury Race: Speed, Structure, Discipline Read More »
We’re in a new monetary regime. 💸 On one side, a debt system that has to inflate, because the obligations are nominal and a shrinking denominator makes them heavier. On the other, AI technology that has to deflate, because every improvement pushes the cost of making things toward zero. The fiat unit can’t let prices
The New Monetary Regime: Fiat Inflates, Tech Deflates Read More »
The whole model in three lines. Digital Capital = $BTCDigital Credit = $SATADigital Equity = $ASST Credit gets the first $100 and the coupon. Equity gets everything above it. That’s why $SATA is bitcoin with the volatility stripped out and $ASST is amplified bitcoin. Strive = NO debt 1. Digital Capital appreciates. More demand for
The Whole Model in Three Lines: Digital Capital, Credit and Equity Read More »
The hike as a transfer, in one chart. 🔂 Treasury borrows short and got repriced in full. Large caps termed out at 2021 coupons (2-3%) and earn 5% on cash. The Fed tightened and the $SPX got paid. ✅ The tightening tax went to whoever borrows off prime. The contractor, the landlord, the small business,
The Hike as a Transfer Read More »
Making policy mistakes IS the Fed policy. Two weeks ago they hiked to stop “second and third order effects.” This morning: wages 3.0%, lowest since May 2021. Payrolls 29K. July revised to a loss. Three-month average 51K. 🤯 The second-order effect they hiked to prevent is wages. Wages were already rolling over. They hiked into
Making Policy Mistakes IS the Fed Policy Read More »
AI agents aren’t a productivity story. They’re a fraction story. $META $SPCX Productivity is output over input. Every prior technology moved one side. The steam engine raised output. The assembly line cut input. Agents do both in the same quarter: more output per worker, fewer inputs per unit of output. Numerator up, denominator down. That’s
AI Agents Aren’t a Productivity Story. They’re a Fraction Story Read More »
