A winning streak is emotionally persuasive and analytically dangerous. It encourages investors to confuse a favorable environment with a repeatable skill. The longer the streak, the more tempting it becomes to increase size precisely when humility is most valuable. A better review asks what actually drove the result: selection, timing, leverage, liquidity, or simply a […]
Winning Streaks Can Teach the Wrong Lesson Read More »
$EOSE is a long-term bet on domestic, non-flammable energy storage. The technology story most retail investors are not sizing correctly is the chemistry edge: an aqueous zinc battery (Znyth™) with no rare earths and a fully domestic U.S. supply chain. The Z3 module has more than 200 patents pending, published, or issued, plus a bipolar
Eos Energy’s Zinc Battery Edge Is More Than Chemistry Read More »
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh wants to pay more attention to inflation measures that strip out the most extreme price moves each month. Several versions exist, all running below core. The most widely cited is the Dallas Feds trimmed mean, at 2.3% in April versus 3.3% for core PCE. That distinction matters: if the Fed emphasizes
Warsh’s Trimmed-Mean Inflation Lens Could Keep Rates Lower Read More »
The Federal Reserve is getting a cleaner signal on inflation than the headline debate suggests. Kevin Warsh has indicated a preference for trimmed-mean measures over core PCE alone, and that matters because the trimmed mean strips out the most extreme monthly price moves. The practical takeaway is not that inflation has disappeared. It is that
Trimmed Mean Inflation Gives the Fed More Room to Cut Read More »
Right -> the end of a 40-year bond bull market. The duration of this drawdown is the signal, not the depth (as you pointed out) the $AGG peaked at rock-bottom yields, so minimal carry and maximum duration make the recovery challenging even if rates just hold. And the move is
Bond Duration Is the Signal, Not the Depth Read More »
The end of the 40-year bond bull market is not defined by one dramatic day. It is defined by what happens after yields stop falling. When long-term yields spent decades moving lower, duration was rewarded twice: bonds delivered income, and their prices rose as rates fell. Portfolios built on that experience came to treat duration
The Duration Drawdown Is the Signal Read More »
Investing is not one skill. It is a puzzle, and most people hold one piece and wonder why the picture does not work. My framework starts with fundamentals: what to buy and why it should compound. Risk and sizing determine how long I can stay in the game. Macro tells me whether the tide is
Investing Is Not One Skill Read More »
The next wave of disruption is not concentrated in the obvious mega-caps. It is moving through smaller companies that are rewriting industries before Wall Street fully wakes up. A few examples: AST SpaceMobile: cell towers in space and broadband direct to a phone. IREN: a power-and-compute platform built for the AI era. Optical and networking
10 Disruptors the Market Hasn’t Priced In Read More »
Every position you hold will eventually tell you who you are. Not when it is workinganyone can hold a winner. The revealing moment comes when it is down, the thesis is being questioned, and people you respect have quietly moved on. That is when the market stops testing your analysis and starts testing your process.
Every Position Eventually Tells You Who You Are Read More »
THE FUTURE ECONOMY – MAPPED Everyone’s arguing about which stock wins. 8 sectors – the infrastructure the next decade actually runs on PHOTONICS -> light kills copper $CRDO $SIVE $AAOI AI INFRASTRUCTURE -> the compute buildout $IREN · $NBIS $DGXX
The future economy: 8 infrastructure sectors for the next decade Read More »
