$BTC Seeing call outs of lower levels like “$71k inbound” on the timeline. Maybe. It’s fourth in line. 71k is where the 100 EMA and the top of the Ichimoku cloud sit, so it’s a real level, not invented. But has to get through three shelves first: 74,750 → the 0.382
$BTC has now been rejected twice at the sell block and bought twice at the buy block. It’s coiling into the Fed. Yesterday’s high stopped 34 dollars under the block at 79,634. Today’s dip into 75.6k got bought back the same session. The lid: 77.1-78.4k, where the 20
First principles Howard Marks: you can’t predict, but you can prepare. Nobody knows the day the tape turns. Not the Fed, not the funds, not the account with the perfect chart. Every year the same people call the bottom, and every year it’s a different person who was right. So the job was never calling
Most people watching the Fed are watching the wrong number. Earnings do not move the overall market; liquidity does. The rate that matters is the real rate: the policy rate minus expected inflation. The Fed sets the first variable. The public sets the second. That means policy can change without a single vote. Hold the
The Fed, Plainly: The Real Rate Does the Tightening Read More »
Rate Hikes Hit the Private Sector. “Raising interest rates will not bring down oil or natural-gas prices, curb government deficits, or reverse the monetary debasement that undermines purchasing power.” @dlacalle_IA is truly a top economist who speaks real economics how I see it. 🤝
Rate Hikes Hit the Private Sector Read More »
THE FED, PLAINLY Druckenmiller had it right: earnings don’t move the overall market, liquidity does. But most people watching the Fed are watching the wrong number. The rate that matters is the real rate: the policy rate minus expected inflation. The Fed sets the first. The
Core CPI rose 2.4% year over year, the lowest reading since March 2021. That is not a victory lap, but it is a meaningful change in the inflation backdrop. Headline CPI was 3.4% year over year and core rose 0.3% month over month. The mix says inflation is still above target, yet the underlying trend
Core CPI at 2.4% Gives the Fed More Room to Wait Read More »
“Rate hike would engineer a private sector recession.” Remember the Fed has a dual mandate: Price stability and maximun employment. A rate hike would destroy BOTH: It will NOT bring down gas, diesel prices or shelter costs. It WILL hurt job creation, investment and
Rate hike would engineer a private sector recession. Read More »
AI isn’t a sector. Crypto isn’t a sector. Software isn’t a sector. They’re one circuit, and the tickers are just where you plug in. Here’s the circuit: Energy feeds it: BE, VST, and TE. Electrons are the raw material. Substations take years, so this is where the shortage lives. Compute runs on it: IREN, NBIS,
The Future Economy Is One Machine Read More »
AI isn’t a bubble. Bubbles run on stories. This one runs on contracts. THE AI STACK, Q4 edition. Scarcity migrates up the stack: GPUs in 23, memory now, power next. ENERGY: $BE $EOSE $TE $VST The layer you can’t fab. Substations take years. COMPUTE: $IREN $NBIS $CIFR $WULF Compute is revenue, per Jensen. Cheapest per
AI isn’t a bubble. This one runs on contracts. Read More »
