Case closed! Government spending accounting for about 1/5 of GDP bloats (manipulates) GDP numbers!Not a strong private sector rather massive gov spending! Look under hood at table 2:Gov Spending: +42.8% Q3 vs Q2Fed: +22.1%Inventories: +65.5%
Everything is connected. Technology permeates all elements of our life. Exponential change is occurring in way we work & live. Productivity & Deflation should be increasing exponentially. But Inflation, the “hidden tax” & theft, is entrenched. SYSTEMS THINKING is paramount.
Everything is connected. Read More »
Breaking – Change in pattern of recent recessions: employment growth stagnated and unemployment tended to rise for some time even AFTER the recession’s trough was reached. This pattern is referred to as “jobless recoveries.” Unemployment is counter cyclical with timing
Know Your Business Cycles: Money Supply & Inflation Money growth often falls sharply at or just before the onset of a recession. [Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz using data back to 1867, demonstrate that money growth is procyclical & leads the cycle] Inflation is
Know Your Business Cycles: Money Supply & Inflation Read More »
Higher cost of money continued! Higher for LONGER higher cost of debt and capital means:• rerate of risk• lower tier companies & assets – higher interest exp• more bankrupcies• devalution of assets (RE we are looking at you!)• CASH is king
Higher cost of money continued! Higher for LONGER Read More »
Money Supply shrinking at fastest rate since 1930s! Let’s put M2 (money supply) shrinking in perspective. We know about Money Supply and its direct relationship with inflation! Inflation to Recession CYCLES – thanks FED! Look at these charts and how LOW we are now (% change
Money Supply shrinking at fastest rate since 1930s! Read More »
Negative rates & easy money cause malinvestments & ZOMBIFICATION which are coming to fruition now and near term. Lowering rates incentivizes DEBT which creates more currency ( ~83% of minting) Inflation. FIAT DEBASEMENT. Notice patterns during & after recession – more debt
Let’s put M2 (money supply) shrinking in perspective. Thanks to my friend @GameofTrades_ for bringing up this topic this morning as we are always talking about Money Supply and its direct relationship with inflation! Look at these charts and how LOW we are now (% change Y/Y)
Let’s put M2 (money supply) shrinking in perspective. Read More »
It so just getting started. RE is very slow process. First homes sales drop, then inventory rises, then prices come down BUT wait…historical low inventory and demand is anemic! Let’s see how it unfolds as economy tightens and enter recession. (Job losses, credit defaults, debt
Current CPI Inflation is Worse than Reported Why? The annual inflation rate is backward looking since the most recent monthly rate is heavily outweighed by the previous 11 months’ rates There is a “better way” to find out what inflation currently is and how it may be trending
Current CPI Inflation is Worse than Reported Read More »
