Inflation began rising in 2021, and the FED was very slow in raising interest rates and tightening monetary policy.Per the Taylor rule, the FFR should have been nearly 10% by the end of 2021, while the Fed kept the rate near zero. Policy mistake?
Even IF they rate cut 100bps (per expectations), they are still 400bps+ higher when people, businesses, etc refinance or get a loan. HIGHER cost of money hasn’t been fully felt yet. Therefore, this won’t do much! HIGHER FOR LONGER.
$SPY $SPX indexes have gone nowhere. Lots of action in between though. The indexes are pinned with vol compression at center. Banks/institutions supplying vol to markets. Structured products with bonds plus deriavtives with yield stacking.Always about Supply & Demand.
A chart tells a millions stories. End of 40 yr bond bull market?!Have we entered a secularly inflationary period with Higher for Longer?Massive DEBT rising. Over $34T + interest exp over $1T.It is always a future burden on the people. Is the GDP bloat from government
A chart tells a millions stories. Read More »
“Inflation is like alcoholism. The GOOD effects come FIRST and the BAD effects come LATER.” “That’s why there is a strong temptation to do too much.” “When you stop, the bad effects come first!” Milton Friedman “Free To Choose”
Real Estate News Same pattern: Home Sales DOWN, Home Prices UP RE Market is very SLOW. Could a recession ie job losses or higher vacancies trigger an influx of inventory and forced sales to LOWER prices? Stay tuned for 2024!
The “disinformation specialists” are claiming a “soft landing” but we know:1. Inflation is embedded2. Prices are elevated & many increasing3. Debt is rising significantly in public & private sectors4. Purchasing power DECLINING
The “disinformation specialists” are claiming a “soft landing” but we know: Read More »
From Industrial Revolution to beginning of WW2, we had deflation as productivity & output increased & brought DOWN prices. Now with current revolutions – AI, IOT, Blockchain, BITCOIN. Expectations are similar. Where is that capture? Is it being hidden from the people & flowing
And why are all the restaurants and cafes busy and everyone is traveling?! Credit cards! Give a person the lead way to spend and they will consume. Move over ricardian equivalency. There are effects to people having “money” aka CC to spend now. “Because investors &
And why are all the restaurants and cafes busy and everyone is traveling?! Credit cards! Read More »
I maintain Framing is everything! Look at the headlines regarding job reports today:25% below expectations and headlines read “slightly” Take away message: Question everything and always look under the hood! That’s what we do on @TheROShowPod Truth, Transparency, Freedom!
I maintain Framing is everything! Read More »
