Quick overview, what do I see? • CPI 6.5 Y/Y, -.1 M/M (finally a down month!) • CORE 5.7 Y/Y, +.3 M/M (up higher than last mo +.2) • SERVICES very sticky! • Services are a function of the tight labor market The deceleration pattern continues with CPI but services inflation are very sticky and […]
CPI December 2022 & Market Ideas Read More »
Earnings recession or not?! Margins are very compressed w/ higher COGS & oper exp w/ “new” fees as well. It will take time. Rev upheld more by inflation than output/vol2Qs E decline Y/Y so likely even w/Infl remain elevatedMy perspective from being CFO/CEO for >17 yrs in manuf
Earnings recession or not?! Read More »
NFIB Small Business Optimism ind x at 6 mo LOW 89.8 in Dec22.• 12th mo below 49y ave (98)• Expectations for next 6 mo worsened by 8 pts• Positive = job openings hard to fill• Inflation is biggest problem(I concur with our business!)
NFIB Small Business Optimism ind x at 6 mo LOW 89.8 in Dec22. Read More »
5-10T Less liquidity affecting private credit, HY bonds, sovereign bonds, & equities needing constant refi.Will erode valuations. Less $ to equity and bonds.Can’t wait to interview @dlacalle_IA on @TheROShowPod near term.
So true! When I met @FrankDPrestia in college, he said to push aside the “job offers” & focus on “my business” Invest in yourself. Entrepreneurship is way to go. Can start as side or main. @Budgetdog_ @FrankDPrestia
So true! When I met Read More »
Manufacturing data is a forward indicator for earnings and trends especially New Orders which have been contracting and in December we had the sharpest decline since 2008-2009. December US PMI Composite Output at 44.6 (November: 46.4). 4-month low. December US Services Business Activity Index at 44.4 (November: 46.2). 4-month low. December US Manufacturing Output Index
Manufacturing PMI Dec22 Read More »
Diversified Asset Classes – Commodities#GOLD $GLD although non-interest bearing, it is protection against geopolitical and high inflation environments. Also does well in deflationary enviroment.Has performed better than 60/40.#Gold #Silver $SLV (long via futures & ETFs)
Diversified Asset Classes – Commodities Read More »
We really do not want a FED pivot. Why? First, let’s go right to the “pink elephant” in the room – QE! It was the negative rates and massive liquidity injections into the system that led us to where we are today. Banking crisis is the symptom. Is the “everything bubble” bursting? As Albert Einstein
We Do NOT Want a FED Pivot! Read More »
The Wellbeing Economy Government partnership has formed to shift our global priorities from growth to quality of life and greater wellbeing for humanity. The coalition aims to transform economies around the world to deliver shared well-being for all by 2040. GDP percentage changes aren’t reflective of the true wellbeing of a nation. These quantitative calculations
Well Being over GDP? Read More »
Is Polycrisis the new buzz word of 2023? No it has been around for decades. What is global polycrisis and how does it differ from systemic risk? Polycrisis can occur at any scale that hosts multiple interacting systems, local, national, regional, or global. However for purposes of this discussion let’s focus on the largest scale,
