Economics

Why do we talk about future especially on New Years?! Because it is FUN! Part of human nature to ponder, question, extrapolate… Ok so let’s have a look at FED Funds Rate. (that is the rate that banks charge each other) 6 months to me has been the window I will look at. I think […]

CPI surprised to downside with a deceleration pattern emerging. Will it continue? Uncertainty abounds, however, let’s look deeper. CPI printed at 7.1% Y/Y, CORE 6.0% Y/Y much lower than Cleveland FED forecast M/M we still see an INCREASE although by less of an increase thus a deceleration: CPI .1% M/M, CORE .2% M/M The areas

There is a lot going on this week…yes, holidays coming up so mid-December is always busy but we have CPI, FOMC this week! More to come on those events. Let’s talk stocks! As I have said, this is a selective stock market with some sectors demonstrating more strength than others and they have been pretty

This is the time when a BEAT is not good. Yes PPI surprised to the upside means COST PUSH Inflation still increasing and higher than expectations. PPI +.3% in November. Final demand prices also rose 0.3 percent in both October and September. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 7.4 percent

Let’s begin with where we are now. Earnings are under pressure. As rates rise, we experience not only rises in costs of debt and capital for businesses, but future valuations are also diminished, and growth is further slowed adding to compressed margins. Margins are compressed with rises in the costs of capital, debt, production, labor.

We can all agree that inflation remains obstinately high and has become more widespread. Consumer prices began rising significantly late last year in 2021 and have continued in 2022 at an uncomfortable, alarming pace exceeding central banks targets in not only the US but most of the largest global economies. Containing inflation is a priority

Getting money, and being able to keep that money are two vastly different skills: Getting money requires action, taking risks, being positive. Keeping money requires just the opposite skills – playing safe, being fearful, and a lot of inaction. Global Yield Curve Inverted First time in at least two decades the global yield curve has

We are in a global community with all nations interrelated so when a major contributor to the global economy has economic restrictions it impacts the world economy significantly. Global growth has slowed and US and China (the 2 top GDP contributors to the world output) have large impacts. Thus, China’s economic restrictions will most likely

Let us begin, the macroeconomic policy landscape has shifted rapidly during the past year, with policymakers facing an unusually uncertain environment. We are inevitably part of a global community with many moving parts filled with growing tensions and uncertainty coupled with worsening global outlook. Some permanent output losses are expected in many economies. So, in

The FED has work to do. It appears our challenges are moving from Inflation to Employment issues and further Earnings compressions. There are more data points than just Unemployment and NFP. Let’s explore. In my opinion, the Labor market holds the key. We have a tight labor market as demand for workers exceeds supply. Nominal