Cantillon Effect – those closest to money printer benefit the most. Inequality at its best. Great explanation below Most people have never heard of the Cantillon Effect. But once you understand it, you’ll see the world of investing differently. What is it? In the early 1700s, Richard Cantillon noticed a simple pattern: When new money […]
The Cantillon Effect: Those Closest to the Money Printer Benefit Most Read More »
Housing data looking to be strong. Mortgage apps with strong DEMAND! $OPEN Mortgage apps continue to show strong demand to low rates. Even the refi index joined the party this week. This was likely too soon to benefit from the MBS spread announcement last week, so we may see further gains. Housing data w/2-3 months
Housing Data: Strong Demand in Mortgage Apps Read More »
$OPEN Mortgage apps continue to show strong demand due to low rates. Even the refi index joined the party this week. This was likely too soon to benefit from the MBS spread announcement last week, so we may see further gains. Housing data with a 2–3 month lag will be strong. Source: X post https://x.com/RosannaInvests/status/2011455274188730509
Housing Data Looking Strong: Mortgage Apps Show Strong Demand Read More »
End the Fed! Milton Friedman …in favor of abolishing it…it has done far more harm than good. Is NOW the time? Milton Friedman on the Federal Reserve: Ive long been in favor of abolishing it. Theres no institution in the US that has such a high public standing and such a poor record of performance…
The BAD news comes later: Rate cuts dont cure inflation when supply is constrained and deficits remain expansionary. They stimulate demand without expanding capacity. Thats how inflation embeds. And we all know how inflation increases. Stimulating and expanding MS beyond
The Bad News Comes Later Read More »
Bottom Line (Hard Truth) 1967 shows how markets can rally before macro reality sets in.Early cuts don’t end inflation -> they delay it. Bull markets can be born in policy mistakes.Stagflation is what collects the bill. Yes:•1967 cuts led to a bull market•That bull market
1967: a bull market before the stagflation bill Read More »
By 1969:• Wage growth accelerated• Commodities surged• Inflation re-ignited The Fed reversed course aggressively too late. What followed was stagflation: high inflation, weak growth, collapsing real returns.
By 1969: The Stagflation Warning Read More »
Then (1967) Inflation was underestimated Rate cuts came early • Fiscal spending never stopped • Inflation returned stronger Now Inflation has been relabeled from transitory to disinflationary Cuts are being priced despite massive deficits and supply constraints The parallel is not that history repeats perfectly. It is that markets can rally before macro reality sets
The Most Important Parallel to Today Read More »
Critical Difference (But Not a Comfort) US Debt/GDP ~39% in 1967 US Debt/GDP ~120%+ today Then, the system was flexible. Now, its fragile. Higher debt means less tolerance for rates and more pressure to cut too early. Financialization: LOW in 1967, Extremely HIGH Now
Critical Difference (But Not a Comfort) Read More »
The 1967 rate cuts show how policy can manufacture a rally before the bill arrives. Phase one was a bull market. Stocks surged, confidence returned, the Fed-will-fix-it narrative dominated, and valuations expanded. By 1969, wage growth accelerated, commodities surged, and inflation re-ignited. The Fed reversed course aggressivelybut too late. What followed was stagflation: high inflation,
The 1967 Rate-Cut Playbook: Rally First, Stagflation Later Read More »
