Manufacturing data is a forward indicator for earnings and trends especially New Orders which have been contracting and in December we had the sharpest decline since 2008-2009. December US PMI Composite Output at 44.6 (November: 46.4). 4-month low. December US Services Business Activity Index at 44.4 (November: 46.2). 4-month low. December US Manufacturing Output Index […]
Manufacturing PMI Dec22 Read More »
Diversified Asset Classes – Commodities#GOLD $GLD although non-interest bearing, it is protection against geopolitical and high inflation environments. Also does well in deflationary enviroment.Has performed better than 60/40.#Gold #Silver $SLV (long via futures & ETFs)
Diversified Asset Classes – Commodities Read More »
We really do not want a FED pivot. Why? First, let’s go right to the “pink elephant” in the room – QE! It was the negative rates and massive liquidity injections into the system that led us to where we are today. Banking crisis is the symptom. Is the “everything bubble” bursting? As Albert Einstein
We Do NOT Want a FED Pivot! Read More »
The Wellbeing Economy Government partnership has formed to shift our global priorities from growth to quality of life and greater wellbeing for humanity. The coalition aims to transform economies around the world to deliver shared well-being for all by 2040. GDP percentage changes aren’t reflective of the true wellbeing of a nation. These quantitative calculations
Well Being over GDP? Read More »
Is Polycrisis the new buzz word of 2023? No it has been around for decades. What is global polycrisis and how does it differ from systemic risk? Polycrisis can occur at any scale that hosts multiple interacting systems, local, national, regional, or global. However for purposes of this discussion let’s focus on the largest scale,
Why do we talk about future especially on New Years?! Because it is FUN! Part of human nature to ponder, question, extrapolate… Ok so let’s have a look at FED Funds Rate. (that is the rate that banks charge each other) 6 months to me has been the window I will look at. I think
FED Funds Rate into 2023 Read More »
Rising interest rates precedes higher mortgage rates which slows and softens housing market. Add inflation which fuels elevated construction costs. You have deteriorating demand due to declining affordability which has dragged builder sentiment DOWN all of 2022. Builder confidence for newly built single-family homes posted its 12th straight monthly decline this month (December 22). Now
NAHB Reflects a Weakening Housing Market in 2022 – Dec 2022/Jan 2023 Read More »
CPI surprised to downside with a deceleration pattern emerging. Will it continue? Uncertainty abounds, however, let’s look deeper. CPI printed at 7.1% Y/Y, CORE 6.0% Y/Y much lower than Cleveland FED forecast M/M we still see an INCREASE although by less of an increase thus a deceleration: CPI .1% M/M, CORE .2% M/M The areas
There is a lot going on this week…yes, holidays coming up so mid-December is always busy but we have CPI, FOMC this week! More to come on those events. Let’s talk stocks! As I have said, this is a selective stock market with some sectors demonstrating more strength than others and they have been pretty
Week of Dec 12 – Stock Ideas Read More »
This is the time when a BEAT is not good. Yes PPI surprised to the upside means COST PUSH Inflation still increasing and higher than expectations. PPI +.3% in November. Final demand prices also rose 0.3 percent in both October and September. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 7.4 percent
Week of 12/9 – PPI, Market, Commodities Read More »
